During the next 20 years, the last members of the Greatest Generation (those born 1924 or earlier) will be cycling out of assisted living and members of the Silent Generation (those born between 1925 and 1942) will become assisted living's principal customers. With the average age of entry into assisted living today being 83, the Silent Generation- whose oldest members are this age at the time of this writing- are just beginning to cross the threshold of assisted living residences. In 20 years, their youngest members will be 86 years of age.
About 95 percent of members of the Silent Generation are retired today. This group has been labeled conformist, believes in the status quo, adapters, people who went along and got along. Members of the Silent Generation have not been seen as risk takers-for example, only 2 percent took the risk to be self-employed, whereas the majority included long-term employees of companies that provided them a good living, good benefits, and retirement pensions.
The Silent Generation, however, may mistakenly be perceived as a group unlikely to clamor for change, and the assisted living industry should not be too complacent. The Silent Generation has taken a stand on some issues. It legitimized divorce, for example. After marrying at an average age of 23 years for men and 20 for women, the "divorce epidemic" was started among men and women born between 1930 and 1940 who showed the biggest age-bracket jump in divorce rate in history. And the Silent Generation can claim kinship with one of the greatest leaders for social change in American history, Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.
The growth of assisted living during the next 20 years will depend on how the next generation of consumers views this long-term care alternative. Several factors will be influential: their level of family support, economic resources, health status, and the availability of technology.
FAMILY SUPPORT. Many among the next generation of senior living customers will have adult children. Ninety-four percent of women in the Silent Generation became mothers and stayed home, where they raised an average of 3.3 children. So unlike many of their daughters, women of the Silent Generation may have children to support them when they need help. And, although not all adult children will behave the same way, many will want the same independence for their parents as they will want for themselves.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. Tomorrow's assisted living consumers may be reluctant to spend money unless they see clear benefit and value from the products and services they purchase. Children of the Great Depression and the upheavals of World War II, the Silent Generation is not inclined to take on debt or financial risk. This group has learned to weather the storm.
Although a majority of the upcoming generation of potential assisted living customers own their homes, their annual household income has stagnated- there has not been a net real increase in family incomes among age 50 and older households since 1999. The estimated median annual household incomes of the target market sector, 75-plus years of age, are expected to increase only 2.5 percent during the next five years. At best, this increase will only keep pace with inflation.
If the price of assisted living charged to customers keeps pace with inflation, the proportion of consumers with sufficient funds to afford out-of-pocket payments is likely to shrink. On the positive side, the proportion of households relying on Social Security for more than half of their income has also been shrinking.
HEALTH STATUS. Health trends among the target market sector for assisted living have begun to trend downward. The proportion of individuals at least 75 years of age who report that their health is "excellent" or "very good" dropped from 35 percent to 31 percent between 1994 and 2004. Thus, the number of individuals who will need assistance may increase during the next 20 years.
The factor that bears the greatest share of the blame in the health decline is the proportion of the populace that is overweight or obese. The proportion that is fit, in that they are not overweight or obese, has declined dramatically in the past decade. It is projected that the obesity epidemic will reduce recent gains in longevity.
USE OF TECHNOLOGY. Technologies are likely to enhance the quality of the living environment and improve service delivery in the coming years. Use of computers has increased dramatically, as has cell phone usage. Still, the segment moving into assisted living in at least the first part of the next decade will be more likely not to have adopted newer technologies. Further in the future, however, new and better technologies will emerge that will enable people to communicate better, more easily, and more affordably with each other, even at long distances. Assisted living residences that learn to take advantage of technologies to help provide opportunities for residents to have more rewarding interactions and intelligent discourse with family, friends, and professionals will help improve their prospects with future customers.
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